For about a year, I’ve been thinking we’re in a new web bubble – or rather, a web soufflé. No popping, but inevitably, a noticeable slump.
And a few days ago, for the first time, i read someone saying the same thing (not in great detail, still).
The first bubble followed the opening of a new market: e-commerce. It became a bubble because stock of the new web companies was grossly overpriced. The market massively bought into Metcalfe’s law. Which proved an exaggeration.
This new boom relies on two commodities:
- advertising (Google, MySpace, Twitter,Digg,…)
- information and monitoring (LinkedIn, Technorati, Google Blog Search …)
Spot the trend ? New market: online advertisement. Google was right there, and is now effectively the biggest advertisement agency on the block.
But more and more players are wanting a part of that pie, through Google or not. You don’t have to have a major in macro-economics to get the picture: supply, demand, and resulting lowering price.
And let’s not forget that the advertisement budget is also dependent on how bullish the economy is feeling. When companies are saving, they also save on marketing campaigns.
Information will always be valuable – but again, dependent on how much you’re willing to spend for it. If a site lets you search the profiles of IT professionals, it is only interesting if you’re actually hiring.
I’m a fan of an economy that lets all kinds of goofy, creative and inventive sites emerge. We’ve seen people let loose their imagination, with nice results.
Only remains to be seen which ones will last. A lovely design and ajaxy tidbits won’t put bread on the table, in the long run.
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